Could we please stop talking about the “Post-COVID workplace” for a moment? We have bigger problems.
So much ink has been spilt in the last few months about new and improved offices that will take us back to work in the post-COVID world. We’ve been told that we apparently need offices with social distancing, new hygiene protocols, plexiglass partitions, and meeting rooms for one. However, none of that matters if the world around us crumbles to dust and people take to the streets with pitchforks and torches. If there is economic and social collapse, what will we produce in these offices? And for whom?
For those who haven’t looked up from their Zoom screen in a while, here is a summary of what is going on in the real world of missed mortgages, disappearing health insurance, and the vanishing American Dream:
Real unemployment:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that we had 11.1% unemployment in June. Oh, but that is something called the U3 statistic, which is the number of people seeking employment. It is politically expedient to report just that number. There is another number called the U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country. That number in June was 18%. We know that not everything gets reported or counted so the real unemployment rate could be well over 20%.
Becker Friedman Institute at The University of Chicago predicts that 42% of jobs lost till May will be permanently lost. That is a staggering 11.2 million jobs. And that was only till May 2020. Since then the southern states, that had been relatively unaffected, have become the center of the epidemic, and we still don’t know what that has done to job losses.
Health Insurance crisis:
In America, when people lose their jobs, the majority also lose health insurance as they are insured through their employers. Nearly 5.4 million people lost health coverage till the month of May. If you include family members who were insured under the employees’ plans then the number could be as high as 27 million. You could be in a lot of financial trouble if you fall sick during a pandemic and are not insured.
MEANWHILE: Billionaires in America have added nearly $600 billion to their fortunes during the pandemic so far. Half of that was attributed to just seven people.
Looming Evictions and Homelessness:
One out of three renters missed their payments in June. 32% missed the July mortgage payments. The moratorium on evictions for renters expired by the end of July. What happens now? The Senate majority has indicated that the new stimulus could take weeks to enact because the ideologues are holding the moderates hostage. One of them said that his response to more debt was “not just a no, but a hell-no”. What will happen in the meantime? Will we see 28 million people evicted from their homes?
Childcare Crisis:
A recent survey from the Bipartisan Policy Center found that 60% of licensed childcare providers have already closed their doors. It is estimated that only 11% of remaining providers could survive a long closure without government support. So when those still with jobs return to work, what will they do with their children? Maybe this will make WFH unavoidable and unbearable all at the same time.
MEANWHILE: The Dow Jones Index is up 550 points as the Fed indicated that they will continue to buy large scale corporate debt. 10% of Americans own 85% of all shares on the stock market and this segment does not include millennials or Gen Z.
Universities closing:
ICE made it illegal for international students to remain in the country if classes are being provided online before backtracking. International students in STEM fields make up nearly 80% of full-time enrollment in graduate schools. This set of students pays much of the tuition for these expensive programs. If these students are spooked by the inconsistent behavior of the US government, fail to show up next year because of uncertainty, and the domestic students sue the universities to recover their fees, then some mid-sized universities may find it difficult to survive. The Ivy League and the larger state universities with sizeable endowments will survive, but many mid-tier universities could face insolvency.
End of consumer spending:
70% of the US economy is made up of consumer spending. When people stop buying stuff, we go into a recession. Stimulus checks and the $600 plus bonus have kept the unemployed people afloat and that money has made its way back into the economy. Now the American politicians are bickering about having spent way too much money already and that we need to stop this “madness”.
At the end of World War II America’s national debt was 106% of GDP, which is exactly what we have today. Because of the public investment that contributed to the debt and deficit, America had its most productive economy from the 50s to the 70s, and because of that we wiped out that debt. We could do it again. Now is not the time for austerity. If the country doesn’t survive, what would be the point of having a lower deficit or debt.
MEANWHILE: Congress is wrangling over whether giving money to people to “stay home” is discouraging them to go out and find work. Maybe they haven’t noticed that the unemployed are out of work not of their own volition, but because their jobs ceased to exist.
Where did the money go?:
We have spent over $5 trillion in economic stimulus to save the economy from a shutdown. We still have 40 million Americans unemployed. The money was given to corporations so that they could stay in business. Still 40% of small businesses, who employ the majority of Americans, will most likely shut down permanently.
Let’s see what Germany, another major capitalist economy, did. They didn’t bail out companies. Instead, they paid 70% of salaries for everyone who would have lost their jobs. Since the companies were no longer paying those salaries, they were required to keep everyone in employment. And they did, as it didn’t cost them anything. This allowed life to go on much as before. Before the pandemic Germany’s unemployment was 5% and now it is 6%.
The United States had its unemployment rate at 3.5% before the pandemic and it is now over 20%. American politicians gave bail out money to corporations, a lot of it through corporate debt buyout, but did not stipulate that the companies should keep people employed. The companies took the money and also let employees go. So, where did the money go?
MEANWHILE: Joe Biden and Donald Trump have raised $633 million and $1.08 billion for their respective election war chests.
What could happen next?
In 1933 when President Roosevelt was confronted by labor unions who looked like they would join the socialists and communist parties, he realized that without bold action that directly helps people, he would have a workers revolt on his watch.
Roosevelt created the social security, unemployment compensation, the minimum wage, and a jobs guarantee for 15 million Americans because there were no new private sector jobs available to people. That would be akin to creating government jobs for 40 million people by today’s population of the United States. This was money given directly to people. This got America out of a depression.
Now that we actually have nearly 40 million Americans, mostly working class, unemployed, we don’t see any action by labor unions because they are weaker today and organization among workers is the lowest it has been since it all began. When there are tens of millions in desperate circumstances, we can expect an increase in ultra-nationalism and xenophobia. Otherizing the cause of suffering is the oldest trick in the book of nationalist politics.
We are also in a stock market bubble because the performance of stocks is entirely disconnected with the lives of the majority of the people. This will eventually catch up with the stock market because consumer spending will decline as income becomes scarce and we can expect a crash that could lead to a depression. The corporate finance institute defines an economic depression as a long-term downturn that is primarily caused by worsening consumer confidence that leads to a decrease in demand, eventually resulting in a large proportion of companies going out of business. When consumers stop buying products and paying for services, companies need to make budget cuts, including employing fewer workers. It can become a self-perpetuating cycle that is hard to break.
Of course, another reality is entirely possible. We could see the virus suddenly recede and the economy open up with a surge in re-employment. Or we may get a reliable vaccine, which is effectively and efficiently distributed and that allows us to reopen the economy. However, America’s performance so far in containment and crisis management has been woeful at best. Therefore we are beginning to see signs of desperation in the ever lengthening lines outside food banks and in protests against racial inequality because the pandemic has affected lower income minorities more than it has the rest.
What can we do now?
Our workplaces and how they are organized will be the least of our problems if there is widespread chaos and social unrest due to desperate circumstances. There is also a real prospect of a nasty and chaotic presidential election in November. Both these outcomes are likely to take the focus away from fighting the pandemic and therefore from reopening the economy.
As citizens the sooner we can get corporate influence out of politics the better our country will be. It doesn’t matter which party we vote for, we must vote for those candidates who will put people first and not take campaign money from corporations. Those who are asking for payroll tax cuts and capital gains tax reduction while simultaneously refusing any further assistance for the unemployed in the name of debt control, are sending a clear signal who they stand with.
For a moment, those of us who are still gainfully employed, let’s look up from what we do, and pay attention to the storm clouds gathering around us. We want our work to be consequential and our lives to be meaningful. Let us inform it with the ground reality. Let us recognize the work of essential workers who are keeping the rest of the economy on track and the rest of us safe. Let us get involved in organizations that are helping people in desperate circumstances.
Here are a few things we can do:
1. Have you ever called your local congressional representative? It doesn’t matter whether you are conservative or liberal. This is the time to call your local politician and tell them that you want them to focus on the people and not donors or you will campaign against them.
2. Have you offered to help those who have been affected by in this pandemic? If going out and volunteering feels risky to you, then donate to organizations that are helping food pantries, and advocating for renters who may be evicted for non-payment of rents.
3. Have you supported your local businesses? While online retailers, one in particular, have made it big, local businesses have shut down. Those that are barely surviving need help. Even if it costs a bit more, and seems a bit inconvenient to go and buy from a physical store, let’s try to buy local. You will be surprised how much these businesses will accommodate your need for social distancing and hygiene.
4. Have you stayed in touch with your colleagues who lost their jobs? It may feel like you might make things worse if you call your laid off colleagues and then offer nothing substantial. You may feel awkward and a sense of guilt for having a job while they don’t. You may surprise yourself by coming up with ideas by just listening to your colleagues. This is the time to reach out.
Let’s do our bit. Please add to this list and share with others so we can together pull ourselves out of this quicksand. No one else will do it.
And stop worrying about whether your desk will be appropriately secluded in your workplace of the future.
